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Biggest movers this week

USD vs. tracked currencies Β· 7-day change

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● Appreciated vs USD● <2% decline● 2–6% decline● 6%+ decline
Reserve Premium Intelligence

The US printed 54% more dollars
between 2020 and 2026.
CPI says prices rose 30%.
The other 24% went abroad.

Every country holding dollar reserves absorbed it.

Their banking systems felt it first.
Markets priced it months later.

We track both β€” the real purchasing power
and the banking stress building underneath it.

Official CPI loss
22.9%
What the government reports
REAL
Real loss
38.2%
CPI + reserve premium
Reserve Global Terminal β†’
190 currencies Β· 1980–2026 Β· Reserve premium included
Track Record

We've been right before

Banking fundamentals lead market repricing. We monitor 25 countries. Real time.

2008 / 2023
Banking stress before market repricing
Banking fundamentals deteriorated β†’ Markets ignored it β†’ 2–18 months later β†’ Systemic repricing

Caught this pattern in GFC 2008 and SVB 2023. Both showed stress in banking data well before market reaction.

2019 / 2022
Currency crises telegraphed by bank data
When banks adjust their fundamentals β†’ Markets lag in pricing the currency impact

Lebanon 2019 and Sri Lanka 2022. The data was there months before the currencies moved.

Ongoing
The methodology
Monitor what banks are doing (before markets react)

Banking behavior leads market repricing by months. 25 countries. Real-time monitoring. Alerts when patterns emerge.

Proof this works

We've correctly identified major market shifts

βœ“
2008GFC β€” banking stress before market repricing
βœ“
2009Nigeria banking β€” data led market reaction
βœ“
2011–16Italy NPL β€” years of visible buildup
βœ“
2018Argentina β€” EM stress pattern caught early
βœ“
2019Lebanon β€” slowest bank run, telegraphed clearly
βœ“
2021Turkey lira β€” currency/banking correlation
βœ“
2022Ghana default + Sri Lanka collapse
βœ“
2023SVB β€” balance sheet told the story
βœ“
2026Bancolombia β€” 50-day market lead
Reserve Global Terminal

Capital flow intelligence
across 25 countries.

Banking stress, sovereign debt, equity positioning, FX, volatility, commodities. All in one terminal.

When capital moves β€” between countries, between asset classes, between risk appetites β€” The terminal catches it before markets reprice.

India BoP crisis
Model fired 6 weeks before Modi’s Hyderabad speech.
Bancolombia 2026
Provisions flagged 50 days before S&P action.
Join as a founding member β†’$49/month
The Mechanism β€” See Your Real Numbers

Enter your currency. See what official CPI misses.

Standard purchasing power calculators show CPI. This one shows CPI plus the USD reserve currency premiumβ€” the additional purchasing power that evaporates because the US dollar funds global reserves through M2 expansion.

Since 1971, the dollar has lost over 87% of its purchasing power by CPI alone β€” and more when you factor in reserve expansion. The calculator below shows both numbers, side by side, for 190+ currencies.

Enter your currency, pick a year. See what your money could actually buy then vs now.

How to use this calculator β–Ό
  1. Select your local country from the dropdown β€” or type a currency code
  2. Enter the dollar amount you want to compare
  3. See two results: standard CPI purchasing power, and real purchasing power including the reserve premium
  4. Use the Currency Converter tab to see live exchange rates with the same adjustment applied
The mechanism

Why CPI lies β€” and why you need to know

US M2 growth 2020–2026+54%
Official US CPI (same period)+30%
Gap β€” printed but not absorbed+24%

That 24% didn't disappear. It compressed into every country holding dollar reserves β€” absorbed as inflation they never printed.

Why CPI alone misleads

CPI measures domestic prices only. It has no mechanism to capture the global reserve effect β€” the artificial dollar demand that lets the US export inflation instead of absorbing it. Every country holding dollar reserves absorbs that inflation for them.

What the reserve premium is

US M2 money supply growth minus US CPI. That gap is the inflation the dollar offloaded to countries holding dollar reserves. It compounds against every other currency yearly.

What does this mean for banking systems globally? See the case studies β†’
The Reserve Letter

The macro case for where capital is moving.

Dollar system transition. Hemisphere consolidation. Petrogas-dollar. Critical minerals. Banking stress. Investable implications in every issue. Bi-weekly. Free.

Read past issues β†’
Country Deep-Dives

Purchasing power, reserve premium impact, and banking stress context for 190 currencies across 64 countries.

Explore all countries β†’
Free

You understand the reserve premium. You want daily breakdowns of global economic patterns.

Follow on X β†’
FOUNDING MEMBER
$49/month

You want to monitor banking stress in real time. You want alerts before markets react. 25 countries. Live signals.

Reserve Global Terminal β†’
What the official CPI misses
Why CPI alone misleads

CPI measures domestic prices only. It has no mechanism to capture the global reserve effect β€” the artificial dollar demand that lets the US export inflation instead of absorbing it. Every country holding dollar reserves absorbs that inflation for them.

What the reserve premium is

US M2 money supply growth minus US CPI. That gap is the inflation the dollar offloaded to countries holding dollar reserves. It compounds against every other currency yearly. From 2020–2022 alone, US M2 grew 40% β€” most of that absorbed globally, not domestically.

How estimates lock in automatically

Years marked ~ use IMF World Economic Outlook projections. The moment World Bank publishes verified data β€” typically 12–18 months after year end β€” those estimates automatically become permanent verified numbers. No action needed.